By YGTV’s Political Editor

This Thursday sees Gibraltar’s first by-election in 14 years. I look at the chances of each of the four candidates and examine the nature of what has been an exciting campaign.

Nick Cruz

The first candidate to announce his intention to stand was the PDP’s Nick Cruz. Cruz’s campaign has been characterized by a refreshing insistence on the need to promote a new brand of constructive politics to replace the bitter divisions and tribalism of the current GSLP-Lib/GSD Punch and Judy show. As in other elections, it is almost certain that Cruz, always one of the most popular and high-profile members of the PDP, will successfully attract some GSD voters. However, with two disappointing results in the past, it is unlikely that he will be able to upset what many expect to remain a two-horse race. This by-election is an unmissable opportunity for the PDP to secure a parliamentary seat and it is therefore crucial for the PDP and its future. Another poor result will surely make the party reconsider the direction it wants to take before the next General Election. Gibraltar, together with many other democracies in the Western world, allows little space for third parties to leave a significant mark on politics aside from any role they might play in short-lived but expedient coalitions. I fear the PDP might become a victim of this trend.

Albert Isola

The GSLP went for a safe choice in selecting Albert Isola to defend its seat. Here is a man with a life-long involvement in politics coupled with four years’ experience in what was then the House of Assembly. The GSLP have urged people to vote for Isola in order to ensure that there is another Government Minister to deliver its manifesto commitments. In other words, they have presented him as someone who will deliver stability and continuity. However, they have also admitted that Government business can continue with the reduced complement of just nine Ministers. This sends a slightly mixed message: the Government is both saying that everything is fine if Isola doesn’t get in (in a sense preparing the ground in the event of a defeat) and yet the entire campaign has been spreading the message that he is, nevertheless, an essential addition if the current team is to deliver on its commitments which seems to imply that he is, in fact, needed. The question for voters is whether the GSLP-Liberal administration is successfully delivering the change that it promised back in December 2011. A drop in the GSLP vote would signal a loss of confidence and would be a powerful assessment by the public of its performance some 18 months into its mandate.

As usual, when we look closer at recent developments, the interpretation of certain decisions is strongly determined by one’s political prejudices. Let’s take, as one example, the decision to reduce the size of the reclamation project in front of Tradewinds to accommodate the Sunborn floating hotel. This is the second time that the Government has performed a U-turn with respect to a large project (the first was the cancellation of the extra floors for blocks in Moorish Castle Estate) and came after protests from NGOs and affected tenants. There are two ways this can be taken: either the Government is engaging with stakeholders (funny term; now ubiquitous) and being responsive to concerns, or it is running the risk of reacting to any dissenting voice and any month-old Facebook group rather than being guided by the strength of its own convictions. As I said earlier, one’s pre-existing political temperament will determine which interpretation makes more sense but these are the kind of decisions which colour one’s overall evaluation of the Government’s performance and they will influence voters’ choices this Thursday.

Marlene Nahon

Marlene Nahon, who initially intended to stand as an independent, is, by her own admission, not a “career politician.” The GSD presented Nahon as someone whose background would offer a fresh perspective in a predominantly male and lawyer-dominated arena. In her interviews and press conferences, she has stressed that a vote for her would express a widespread disapproval of the Government’s actions so far and she has made Opposition concerns about employment and public finances the heart of her campaign. It strikes me that, if successful, she would be a sincere and articulate addition to the already strong GSD team.

Although the GSD re-establishes a link with the old AACR in selecting the daughter of its former leader, Nahon will perhaps find difficult the transition from academic studies and community engagement to the highly aggressive brand of politics currently being practised. In a recent blog post, Nahon defended her late father against allegations made on social media. Unfortunately, it is now expected that public figures reply to online allegations and rumours, however lacking in substance such malicious claims might be. Silence, always the best and most dignified response, is sadly now interpreted as a tacit acceptance of the validity of the allegations. Nahon needs to ensure that this engagement with social media debates does not make her appear defensive or easily offended.

A central message of the post-Caruana GSD is the importance of supporting the mythical figure of the “hard-working individual”. Some of this talk has been necessarily vague and lacking real focus – I mean who, after all, doesn’t wish to support and encourage hard workers? The GSD need to be more specific about how this commitment to what it calls “ordinary” workers who contribute to society and have the usual aspirations to improve their lot and the related drive to replace an encroaching culture of entitlement can translate into concrete policies that distinguish it from the other parties.

Bryan Zammit

Bryan Zammit was the final candidate to announce that he would be facing the public vote. Zammit’s central concern is to do away with party politics. He says that, if successful, he would urge the Chief Minister to hold a referendum that would seek to establish a new parliamentary structure not dominated by political parties and their MPs but instead led by individuals who are experts in their fields. It is difficult to see how an independent candidate could succeed in implementing this ambitious proposal which is not, by the way, without its own problems. Although Zammit has established a reputation of sorts from his administration of a popular online debating group and other successful public campaigns, he remains an outsider in this contest as Gibraltarian voters have, in recent times, backed candidates who enjoy the support of established parties.

As for predictions, I think it will be a close contest between Isola and Nahon. The PDP will probably secure under 10% and Zammit a bit less. The result of the 2011 General Election points to a deep division among the electorate and there is no reason to think that either of the major parties has lost its hardcore supporters. The GSLP has a slight advantage in that it is indirectly supported by the publicity machine that is No. 6 Convent Place and it is startling to see the number of positive press releases issued in the last week – a veritable unofficial manifesto of improvements, new facilities and, today, the “music mega festival.”

Conclusion

I know it sounds obvious but the main point I wish to stress ahead of the vote is the importance of thinking for oneself. Let us not allow the noise of the catchy slogans, the demagoguery and the party mouthpieces that pollute social media with the unthinking regurgitation of dogma and spin to distract us from the duty of thinking for ourselves. One must think carefully, intelligently and with a degree of detachment and objectivity about the performance of the current administration and about what the candidates have to offer allowing choice to be guided by what one feels will be, on reflection, in the best interests of the community. This thinking necessarily requires a degree of critical engagement with the lively debates in an environment free from the shrill, parrot-like outpourings of fanatics.

It is a myth that this is a free vote with no consequences. Although the vote might not lead to any significant changes in the make-up of Parliament, it will send a strong message of either endorsement or disillusionment to the current Government. As such, it represents a unique opportunity, just a year-and-a-half into the GSLP-Liberal term in office, to democratically express the feelings of this politically engaged community which will, on Thursday, participate directly in determining how Gibraltar is led.

Thanks for reading!

Giordano

YGTV's Political Editor