By YGTV’s Political Editor

These past few weeks we’ve lived through an intensely fought by-election campaign characterized by scandals, alleged cover-ups and nasty personal insults. We also had what some saw as a controversial budget which provided the candidates with plenty of ammunition (or support) in the run up to the vote last Thursday. With the party (but not, I’m afraid, party politics) now over, and a long summer of idleness ahead, it’s time to look at how Gibraltar’s political landscape looks after Isola’s victory.

Clouds and Outages

It turned out to be a strange by-election. Polling day itself was marked by a surreal atmosphere: the levanter cloud was driving relentlessly over the Rock filtering the sunlight, bathing the town in a dull grey light. There was also a morning-long power cut which reminded voters of one of the key debating points of the campaign. The final turnout, which was lower than in 1999 and, as expected, much lower than for a general election, was somehow at odds with the ferocity of the preceding campaign. As the first by-election to be discussed ad nauseam on social media, some might have expected a greater mobilization of voters. The online din, believed to be symptomatic of a heavily politicized society, is not, it seems, always a reliable barometer.

Then there was the speed with which the count was conducted and concluded. Within just a coupe of hours, we already had a good idea of the result so there was no tense build up and no protracted wait for agents and journalists to pace impatiently between the counting rooms of the John Mackintosh Hall. There was, in the end, a distinct sense of anti-climax when Melvyn Farrell stepped up given the energy and belligerence with which the contest was approached by candidates and their election teams.

Isola

Isola’s clear win was, without a doubt, a well-deserved result. He ran a strong, slick and well-orchestrated campaign and from the very beginning looked and sounded like a Government Minister. What he managed to do successfully was to present a more human or compassionate side to his character despite having been described as the “barristocracy candidate” by his critics. He emerged as a far more complex and multi-layered candidate in a way ignored by the dismissive “just another lawyer” comments. Even in the GBC debate that often threatened to turn into a shouting match, he managed to keep his composure and treated his opponents with an admirable respect.

No one, not even his critics, doubts that Isola will make a fine Minister. His election will be interpreted by the GSLP as an endorsement of the current administration’s policies and conduct but it seems likely that there was also an element of voter indifference, the result of an acceptance that no real change could be achieved by a protest vote in this particular context.

GSD – Risks and Strategy

The GSD’s Marlene Nahon secured an acceptable result which, although disappointing for the party, was not a disaster. There was always a substantial risk involved in standing for a Government seat against a party still on a high only 18 months into its term in office. Whereas Isola could rely on the positive results of GSLP manifesto commitments like the beach improvements, Nahon was very much in Opposition mode which is a much harder game to play and one less likely to attract the necessary votes in a contest of this nature.

One optimistic interpretation of the results is that, although the GSD polled 10% behind Isola, some 50% of the electorate still decided not to vote GSLP which means that there remains a widespread feeling of dissatisfaction with the status quo; dissenting voices remain in a healthy state. Most GSD supporters must be wondering what the result might have been had it been a straight battle between just Isola and Nahon but politicians cannot afford to get bogged down in such counterfactual speculation.

Nahon says she will continue in the GSD in the future and she is likely to feature in their lineup in 2015. Danny Feetham, as party leader, will need to look closely at the re-fashioning of the GSD’s post-Caruana image and develop a distinctive core identity before that major test but there is little reason to believe that the GSD is no longer a credible force in local politics.

End of the Road for the PDP?

After another poor result, this must be the end of the PDP. Under the current voting system, a party cannot continue on 4-7% of the public vote. This has not been due to either a lack of effort or ability. In fact, Cruz’s campaign was extremely accomplished and confident and his contributions were always refreshingly sane and often penetratingly sharp. Through no fault of his own, it is now certain that Gibraltar has no space for a third party, especially one which is a younger ideological cousin of the GSD.

Cruz, a man of ambition and considerable talent, might now, despite avowals to the contrary, be tempted to switch back to Feetham’s party. If he doesn’t, it is difficult to imagine another future for this political figure which would be unfortunate for those who welcome the occasional dose of wit to lighten and elevate the tone of the same dreary arguments and tired mantras.

Post-Election Hangover

The only significant political casualty after the by-election will be the PDP. The GSD has taken a blow but is robust enough to build on this defeat and present itself as the only convincing alternative to the GSLP-Libs. The GSLP-Libs emerge strengthened and with a noticeable and justified boost in confidence which will accompany them as they continue implementing their manifesto during what is left of their term.

Another casualty during the campaign was the quality of political debate. The Reyes payments accusations, the Sunborn investment exchange and the use of civil service communications (even those of a state-owned utility provider) to bolster the partisan worldview of the ruling political party created an unsavoury atmosphere exacerbated by the incessant tide of online abuse and ridicule aimed at the candidates. It all left a nasty taste in my mouth. Where was the vision, the art of noble compromise, the soaring oratory, the exploration of themes larger than the now exhausting personal rivalries? I think the voter deserved more…

Thanks for reading,

Giordano