Apr 07 - Brexit Negotiations Would Be “Lengthy, Complicated and Untested” – YGTV Interviews The Deputy Chief Minister (Part One)
On the 23rd June, Gibraltar, together with the UK, will face a choice which will have profound consequences: whether to remain in or leave the European Union. Unlike a general election, the outcome will determine our economic and political development for generations.
The ‘In’ campaign has stressed the financial benefits of continued membership of a reformed EU while arguing that leaving the union – on terms that are unknown and undecided - is riddled with uncertainty. The ‘Out’ movement has focused on concerns about immigration and the dilution of national sovereignty while making the case that the UK - once freed from the constraints of unelected Brussels bureaucrats - would be able to set and pursue its own agenda. In Gibraltar, however, parties from across the political spectrum are united in their support for continued membership.
Today, in the first part of a two-part interview with the Deputy Chief Minister, Dr Joseph Garcia, YGTV asks what would happen in the event of ‘Brexit’
YGTV: If the UK votes to leave on the 23rd June, what happens the following day?
Dr Garcia: It’s fair to say that very little happens because the procedure for the UK’s exit from the European Union would be lengthy, complicated and untested – nobody has ever left before under the terms of Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon.
I am in favour of Gibraltar and the UK remaining in the EU but, if the vote goes the other way, the procedure at present is that the UK would formally notify the EU and enter exit negotiations. The UK immediately leaves the top table because they cannot be negotiating while sitting on the same side as the people they’re negotiating with. One or two states would be designated with the conduct of the negotiations together with the European Commission and there is a timescale of two years within which the exit should happen. The UK, during this period, remains in the EU and subject to EU law but doesn’t have a seat at the European Council. So we might still be part of the EU for five years but without having an input via the Council. These are untested, unchartered waters.
YGTV: What would happen if the UK votes to leave the EU but an overwhelming majority in Gibraltar votes to remain?
Dr Garcia: There is a very similar question being put around in Scotland where the Scottish National Party is very much in favour of remaining in the EU and they have concerns about having to exit the EU essentially on the basis of English votes. Here in Gibraltar the view is quite clear: all the political parties in Gibraltar and the Government and the Opposition in Parliament have indicated that their view is that Gibraltar should remain in the EU and we intend to campaign on that basis.
What would happen in the event of Gibraltar voting one way and the UK the other way is a hypothetical situation – we’re not there at present. What we’re talking about when we’re talking about ‘Brexit’ is not that there’d be no relationship between the UK and the EU – there isn’t a complete cut without any relationship or contact at all. What we’re discussing instead is the nature of the relationship that would develop if the UK leaves the EU. We know that there are certain elements that the UK and Gibraltar are very keen on preserving like access to the single market and the free movement of persons. In any renegotiation, the UK would need to factor in the concerns that Gibraltar has as well. The exact nature of that relationship is very difficult to see now – we know what we would like to see but there are 27 member states and one of them in particular has a very specific interest in Gibraltar and we’ve already seen the statements the Spanish Foreign Minister has been making.
YGTV: Are there any existing models that we could look at of European countries that are not in the EU but nevertheless have a relationship with the EU? For example, are the examples of Monaco, San Marino and Andorra relevant?
Dr Garcia: The normal comparisons made involve Norway and Switzerland – they contribute to the EU budget but have no role in the EU’s decision-making. In terms of microstates, these have very different relationships with the EU. For example, Andorra is not part of the political union but has a customs union arrangement with the EU. However, one problem that they have is that their passports are not EU passports so they are not as easily recognized as EU travel documents.
The Channel Islands also have a relationship which is very different. So yes: there are models which can be looked at but, in the final analysis, my feeling is that there is nothing which is ideal and which you can compare like for like because our situation is very different. The obvious difference is that we have a hostile neighbour that wants to take us over and often takes advantage of their position to that and exert pressure.
Visit our website tomorrow for Part Two of our interview in which we ask the Deputy Chief Minister whether the ‘In’ campaign has been scaremongering…
{fcomment}
