Feb 17 - Are Recent Extreme Weather Conditions the Fault of Climate Change?
Both the UK and US have experienced recent heavy bouts of extreme weather, ranging from ‘polar vortexes’ to intense floods and 80 mile per hour winds. Questions are being raised as to whether there is a link between dreaded climate change and the hellish weather conditions still being experienced in the UK.
A report released by the UKs Met Office linked the climactic events to cold weather in Canada and the US. TIME Magazine notes that the reports indicated that there ‘is no definitive answer on the possible contribution of climate change’ to these recent weather conditions although chief scientists at the UK’s Met Office do insists though that evidence does suggest a link.
Despite a particularly mild and well-mannered Winter season here in Gibraltar, the sporadic storm of February 9th saw winds across the Strait reach speeds of 69 miles per hour, raising the question whether the Rock experienced a small taster of on-going climate conditions in the UK. Met Office Gibraltar scientist Graeme Clark notes that there was no direct link between both weather activities. Commenting on the storm he added, ‘an area of low pressure developed mid Atlantic and travelled across Northern Iberia, which produced strong winds along the Portuguese coast, and across the local area. The Straits of Gibraltar helped to funnel these winds, and in doing so led to the strong winds that we encountered on Sunday evening with gusts up to 69 miles per hour. Gibraltar is no stranger to strong winds, and I am sure many will remember the damaging storm of October 2008, which had higher sustained wind speeds, even though the gusts were lower.’
The storm caused power cuts, water pumping complications, roof damage to the Gibraltar Air Terminal, and a great deal of inconvenience to many. Speaking to YGTV, Graeme also noted that during this Winter most of the depressions have affected the northern part of Europe, leading to less rainfall in this area, than other years. Thus far, rainfall stands at only 53% of the average for this time of year.
Commenting on the recently touched upon link between the UK’s bout of extreme flooding and the effects of climate change, Graeme insists that there is no definitive answer to this exceptional period of rainfall, which has been the heaviest for over 240 years, ‘although it is not unprecedented, storms of this intensity regularly effect northern Europe, however it is the frequency of these storms this winter, that has led to the scenes that we are currently witnessing.
‘In saying that we cannot point to a single weather event and link that to Climate Change, extreme events are always going to happen. It is the frequency and intensity of these events that will need to be analysed, over a period of time, to determine whether a connection exists.’
The ESG’s Janet Howett believes that back-to-back storms in the UK are highly unusual. This increase in the number of incidents and intensity of extreme weather is what is predicted as a result of rising temperatures and the fallout is what we are seeing in different parts of the world. She continued, ‘the Gibraltar Government has accepted climate change is here and is building safeguards and developing policies towards withstanding some of the impacts though there is still a lot more that needs to be done. The reason why skeptics still get airplay is because its impossible to be 100% certain about any individual extreme storm or disaster being the direct result of climate change, but what the world has been given is likelihoods and probabilities of what may happen and these certainly seem to be panning out at present.
‘Indeed climate scientists today no longer discuss whether climate change is happening, rather adapting to it.’
Can we assume that climate change has had a marked impact on Gibraltar? Are winter months colder, wetter or even longer than they used to be? Apparently not, says the Met Office. Graeme Clark noted that since observational data started to be recorded at the airport in 1947, the overnight minimum temperature in Gibraltar has risen slightly. He added, ‘of course there will be occasions where there will be "cold snaps", where it will feel colder than normal. In saying that the coldest temperature recorded at the airport since 1947 was 0.6 Celsius, which occurred on the nights of the 1st and 2nd of February 1954. In general we can expect to see a couple of nights in both January and February where the temperature falls to 6 or 7 Celsius.’
The Met Office is well known as the most accurate source for weather conditions. As it is connected to the UK Met Office, the Gibraltar office receives data from their Headquarters in Exeter. Using a variety of sources, information is fed into the office’s super computer. An international network of trained observers record elements each hour. This is coupled with data collected by satellites and weather balloons occasionally launched from the Airport. Once the data is fed into the computer, a virtual model of the atmosphere made up of more than a million lines of computer code predicts the weather, before it happens. Trained forecaster then interprets the information and analyse hourly observation in order to fine-tune the forecast to local areas.
